Sweet 16 -- Year of the Underdog

When three of the 16 teams left in this year's Sweet 16 are Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, and Cornell, you know this is no ordinary March Madness. After George Mason's improbable run to the Final Four in 2006, the last three years have seen a depressingly low number of upsets. With the NCAA trying its hardest to minimize the chances of multiple mid-majors advancing past the tournament's first weekend, it's simply amazing that 11 different conferences are represented among the 16 final spots in this year's tourney.

But hopefully this is not the end. This year's three biggest cinderellas (although I'm not sure that term is appropriate anymore after watching them play) all have at least a decent shot of advancing to the Elite Eight. Here's why:

1. Northern Iowa vs. Michigan State: perhaps the biggest factor that gives the Panthers of UNI at least even chances of getting past the Spartans is due to an unfortunate circumstance, but one that will favor them immensely. Kalin Lucas, State's star point guard, ruptured his Achilles' tendon in Sunday's game against Maryland and will miss the remainder of the season. Although I would never wish an injury on a team that I'm rooting against, you gotta like what this does for Northern Iowa's chances. Lucas was the Spartans' best player, averaging 14.8 points and 4 assists on the season, and his lightning quick speed would've given the Panthers fits on defense. Korie Lucious, who hit the game-winning buzzer-beater against the Terps on Sunday, will likely start in his place. Lucious has averaged a shade over 5 points per game and doesn't have the athleticism or overall presence that Lucas has. If Northern Iowa is able to implement their game plan -- which is to slow the game down, control the tempo, and work the shot clock down for good open looks --they should be able to keep this improbable ride going to the Elite Eight.

2. St. Mary's vs. Baylor: Of the three "cinderellas", I think St. Mary's has the toughest task in its Sweet 16 matchup. Baylor is an extremely big, athletic team that should have a sizeable advantage in the post and on the boards -- not to mention in the crowd, as the Bears will be playing in Houston, just a couple hours away from home. But to count out St. Mary's at this point would be downright foolish. We saw what they could do against 'Nova. When they're hitting shots and effectively feeding the ball to Omar Samhan, they are a scary team to face. Not to mention, they're probably one of the most unselfish teams left in the tournament, exude a relaxed and confident demeanor (watching them laugh it up on the bench against Villanova, they looked like a high school-aged CYO team or something), and are pretty much playing with house money at this point. This could be the perfect storm for the tiny school from Moraga, California to pull yet another upset.

3. Cornell vs. Kentucky: I'm not gonna mince words -- this Cornell team is flat out sick. Apparently ignoramuses like CBSsports.com's Mike Freeman haven't realized it yet, though; Freeman's under the impression that Kentucky will win by at least 30. Which really makes me scratch my head. Because Cornell has already played a team of Kentucky's caliber -- none other than the Kansas Jayhawks, and the Big Red lost to them by just five. Cornell's offense is a model of efficiency. They shoot the lights out, display excellent teamwork, have a dominant -- as-in "Big 6 Conference dominant" -- seven-foot center in Jeff Foote, and have one player who speaks five languages and can solve a Rubik's cube in two minutes (wait, that last reason doesn't matter for this game? Fine, look at the first three then). Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that Cornell's entry into the Sweet 16 was no fluke. Kentucky, meanwhile, while obviously ridiculously talented and athletic, is also young and undisciplined. This upset I can really see happening.

So yeah, Freeman, I'd love to bet you that your 30-point prediction will be wrong. I'll even give you odds.